Financial Investments

The degree of culpability of Director General of Aeroflot can only define the "terrible" court, whose decision is known, may be revoked only by the "terrible supreme" court. However, we are about this decision shall never know. We can only say that if there had been in his place the other person, the result would be the same. The reason – not to personal actions – they are merely a consequence. The real cause of loss of Russian civil aircraft – State Protectionism, which allowed enterprises to the industry for decades in the hothouse environment, without the need to optimize production, minimize costs, and improve the marketing of their aircraft and compete "on equal terms" with foreign competitors. Protectionism, inevitably, izcheznuvshy overnight, giving way to a competitive market, to which our aircraft manufacturers were not ready.

An example of a show, despite the fact that the aircraft order book business, by its nature, more narrow, and state protectionism of those days lasted for decades, is now unlikely. However, the domestic aircraft industry at the moment "out into the open sea of competition" was the pride of Russia, having significant technological advances, while the domestic automotive industry, either now or in the foreseeable future, someone else's "pride" is not exactly, and no progress has not. The degree of stability such industry to open competition, in our opinion, is rather conventional. To summarize briefly repeat the main future investigation protektsionistkih measures for enterprises of the Russian car industry: – In the medium term (3-5 years) maintaining protectionist measures, we obtain a further lag of domestic automakers from foreign competition, which will become increasingly significant. Regardless of investor optimism, risk level of investments in the industry will grow at the same level of profitability will not meet this level of risk. – In the long term (10-15 years), while maintaining protectionist support Automotive industry, automobile industry crisis is likely Russia.

In this case, we see some helpless enterprises automakers with facilities for the production of obsolete vehicles, with a huge amount of unsold goods. Liquidity falls, there will be cooperation with foreign automakers in bondage, for Russian enterprises, the conditions, with the transition to the production of foreign models. In the case of referred to the crisis, the capitalization of these companies will fall, investors will incur substantial losses, comparable with the losses of investors and mutual funds OFBU Russian in 2008. The foregoing reflects the Company's position. Do not use in the investment management analytical opinion, we, nevertheless, imposed the restriction for the Russian branch of the portfolio companies to invest in the company of the Russian car industry, up to lifting of protectionist measures aimed at supporting the industry. The reason is simple: "branch – the object of state protectionism, are not able to show a steady long-term growth, and is an industry high risk, since none of the protective measures is not eternal. This does not mean that the shares of the Russian automobile industry in the near future will begin to fall, against the background of future growth markets. However, the abolition of the measure thereafter, it may lead to severe drop in automotive business capitalization, ie, in losses to investors. " The probability of this scenario is essential. Analyst forecasts and specific scenarios development of markets and the global economy as a whole, which develops investment company Financial Investments, manages investments covering all the available stock markets of developing countries, are available at Company